Updated on 2026/04/07

写真a

 
KOIKE Shiro
 
Organization
Faculty of Economics Professor
Contact information
The inquiry by e-mail is 《here》
External link

Degree

  • 博士（学術） ( 東京大学 )

  • 修士（工学） ( 東京大学 )

Education

  • 2002.3
     

    The University of Tokyo   doctor course   completed

  • 1997.3
     

    The University of Tokyo   master course   completed

  • 1995.3
     

    The University of Tokyo   graduated

Research History

  • 2026.4 - Now

    Chuo University   Faculty of Economics   Professor

  • 2018.4 - 2026.3

    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

  • 2019 　 　

    京都大学文学部   集中講義講師

  • 2008 - 2018

    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research   Head

  • 2011 - 2016

    Senshu University   School of Letters

  • 2014.7 - 2015.3

    内閣官房まち・ひと・しごと創生本部

  • 2006 - 2013

    International University of Health and Welfare

  • 2005 - 2008

    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

  • 2002 - 2005

    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

  • 2003 - 2004

    Aoyama Gakuin University

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Professional Memberships

  • THE JAPAN ASSOCIATION OF ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHERS

  • TOKYO GEOGRAPHICAL SOCIETY

  • The Human Geographical Society of Japan

  • THE ASSOCIATION OF JAPANESE GEOGRAPHERS

  • 日本人口学会

  • 地理情報システム学会

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Research Interests

  • Geographical information systems

  • Population

  • 地域人口分析

  • 地理情報システム

  • 将来人口推計

Research Areas

  • Humanities & Social Sciences / Geography  / 人口地理学

Papers

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Books

  • 自然災害と人口

    井上, 孝, 和田, 光平, 阿部, 隆, 川口, 洋, 伊藤, 栄晃, 別府, 志海, 石井, 太, 工藤, 豪, 鎌田, 健司, 小池, 司朗, 丸山, 洋平, 近藤, 共子

    原書房  2021.8  （ ISBN:9784562092192 ）

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    Total pages：xii, 255p   Language：Japanese  

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  • 地域社会の将来人口 : 地域人口推計の基礎から応用まで

    西岡, 八郎, 江崎, 雄治, 小池, 司朗, 山内, 昌和, 菅, 桂太, 鎌田, 健司

    東京大学出版会  2020.2  （ ISBN:9784130502009 ）

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    Total pages：vii, 326p   Language：Japanese  

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  • 地域と統計 : 「調査困難時代」のインターネット調査

    埴淵, 知哉, 村中, 亮夫, 安藤, 雅登, 小池, 司朗, 竹森, 雅泰, 中谷, 友樹, 花岡, 和聖, 山内, 昌和

    ナカニシヤ出版  2018.12  （ ISBN:9784779513404 ）

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    Total pages：xii, 163p   Language：Japanese  

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  • Arai Y and Koike S, Grid-Based Population Distribution Estimates from Historical Japanese Topographical Maps Using GIS

    Modelling Geographical Systems : Statistical and Computational Applications, Kluwer  2003 

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MISC

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Works

  • GISを利用した旧版地形図からのメッシュ人口推定

    2000 - 　

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Awards

  • 学会賞

    2022.6   日本人口学会   地域社会の将来人口－地域人口推計の基礎から応用まで－

    西岡八郎, 江崎雄治, 小池司朗, 山内昌和

  • 優秀論文賞

    2014   日本人口学会   地域メッシュ統計の区画変遷に伴う時系列分析の可能性に関する一考察―測地系間・メッシュ階層間の比較から―

    小池 司朗

  • シンフォニカ統計GIS活動奨励賞

    2005   （財）統計情報研究開発センター  

    小池 司朗

Research Projects

  • The international comparative study on aging and population decline through the construction of web mapping systems of small area population projections

    Grant number：25K00560  2025.4 - 2030.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Aoyama Gakuin University

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    Grant amount： \18850000 （ Direct Cost: \14500000 、 Indirect Cost： \4350000 ）

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  • 非大都市圏における外国人のミクロな集住・移動と地域人口の動態的相互作用

    Grant number：25K04651  2025.4 - 2029.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(C)  国立社会保障・人口問題研究所

    中川 雅貴, 福本拓, 小池司朗, 藤井 多希子

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    Grant amount： \4550000 （ Direct Cost: \3500000 、 Indirect Cost： \1050000 ）

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  • Survey and Research for Understanding the Current Status of Rural Healthcare and Building Future Healthcare Infrastructure Based on Demographics in Remote Areas

    Grant number：24IA0801  2024.4 - 2027.3

    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare  MHLW Research Grant 

    SHOBUGAWA Yugo, HAYASHI Reiko, KOJIMA Katsuhisa, KOIKE Shiro, YOSHIMINE Fumitoshi, TSUBOYA Toru, SUGITA Yoshihiro, SHIRAKURA Yuki

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  • Research for the outlook of demographic trends and social changes in the post-COVID19 era

    Grant number：23AA2005  2023.4 - 2026.3

    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan  Health, Labour and Welfare Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research  National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

    KOIKE Shiro, HAYASHI Reiko, KOJIMA Katsuhisa, IWASAWA Miho, MORIIZUMI Rie, SUGA Keita, NAKAGAWA Masataka, ISHII Futoshi

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  • アジア太平洋地域の小地域別将来人口推計に関するウェブマッピングシステムの構築

    Grant number：23K20127  2024.4 - 2025.3

    日本学術振興会 科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(B)  青山学院大学

    井上 孝, 小池司朗, 石川義孝, 田中耕一, 井上希, 草野邦明

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  • Reconstruction of Japan's population geography in the era of depopulation and post-corona

    Grant number：23K20549  2021.4 - 2025.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) 

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    Grant amount： \13130000 （ Direct Cost: \10100000 、 Indirect Cost： \3030000 ）

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  • Reconstruction of Japan's population geography in the era of depopulation and post-corona

    Grant number：21H00637  2021.4 - 2025.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Teikyo University

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    Grant amount： \13130000 （ Direct Cost: \10100000 、 Indirect Cost： \3030000 ）

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  • Construction of Web Mapping System of Small Area Population Projections for the Asia-Pacific Region

    Grant number：20H01396  2020.4 - 2025.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Aoyama Gakuin University

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    Grant amount： \17030000 （ Direct Cost: \13100000 、 Indirect Cost： \3930000 ）

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  • 人口減少時代における地方圏の人口分布変動に関する地理学的研究

    Grant number：21K01022  2021.4 - 2024.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(C)  早稲田大学

    山内 昌和, 佐藤 英人, 久井 情在, 江崎 雄治, 小池 司朗

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    Grant amount： \4030000 （ Direct Cost: \3100000 、 Indirect Cost： \930000 ）

    本研究では、地方圏を対象として、近年の人口分布がどのように変化し、現在どのような特徴を持つのかを明らかにするために、1990年代以降の市町村および市町村よりもミクロな地域を単位とする地方圏全体の人口分布を、人口学的なメカニズムを踏まえて検討するものである。そのために、都道府県別や市区町村別単位の分析、市区町村よりもミクロな地域単位で農村及び都市の内部の人口分布変化を分析することが本研究の具体的な課題となる。
    2021年度については、2022年度以降に分析を本格化させるために必要になるデータ整備を進めるとともに、既存研究の整理や基礎的な分析を実施した。このうち、データ整備に関しては主に2点を実施した。1点目は、東京大学空間情報科学研究センターとの共同研究を申請することで1995年から2015年までの国勢調査の地域メッシュデータ利用の認可を受けて、GIS上での分析が可能な形へのデータ整備を行った。2点目は、2020年国勢調査のデータが昨年度に公表されたことを受けて、都道府県別および市区町村別に時系列で分析可能な形でのデータ整備を進めた。
    既存研究の整理や基礎的な分析のうち、前者については英文で公表された人口地理学の重要文献を収集し、知見を整理した。後者の基礎的な分析については、都道府県や市区町村を単位として、これまでの自然別社会別人口変化や今後の人口見通しへの影響について検討を進めた。また、地域人口の変化に影響を及ぼす近年の人口移動の趨勢についての検討も実施した。

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  • The methods and applications of population/household projections in the era of long-term depopulation and growing global migration

    Grant number：20AA2007  2020.4 - 2023.3

    Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Japan  Health, Labour and Welfare Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research  National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS)

    KOIKE Shiro, KOJIMA Katsuhisa, IWASAWA Miho, CHITOSE Yoshimi, MORIIZUMI Rie, SUGA Keita, NAKAGAWA Masataka, ISHII Futoshi

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  • 徳川家族人口構造の地域的多様性に関する社会学的研究：地域三類型論再考

    Grant number：20H01569  2020.4 - 2023.3

    日本学術振興会  科学研究費助成事業  基盤研究(B)  神戸大学

    平井 晶子, 廣嶋 清志, 中島 満大, 小林 准士, 小池 司朗, 高橋 眞一, 丸山 洋平

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    Grant amount： \17680000 （ Direct Cost: \13600000 、 Indirect Cost： \4080000 ）

    本研究は、この四半世紀に形成された近世日本の家族人口構造の地域類型論（東北日本型、中央日本型、西南日本型の三類型論）に、空白地域のモノグラフと面的研究を加え、新たな地域類型論を打ち立てることである。そのために本研究では（1）徳川家族のモノグラフ研究、（2）近代の地域横断データ分析、（3）近世の地域横断分析を中心に研究を進める計画を立てた。
    初年度となる本年度の（1）モノグラフ研究については、地域論の空白地域である島根県矢上村の資料整備・読解・データベース化を本格的に開始した。矢上村は人口規模が大きく資料残存年も長くモノグラフ研究に最適な資料である。今年度は資料のデータ化を完了し、読解についても計画通り進んでいる。単年度分ではあるがデータ入力も行い、基礎的分析に着手することができた。また西南海村の高浜村についても資料検討およびデータクリーニングを進め、分析のための基盤整備をおこなった。（2）地域横断分析については戦後における市町村単位の研究を展開することができた。市町村合併による差を踏まえながら、時系列で「面的」データを扱う手法についても検討を進めた。（3）17世紀の面的特徴の把握については世帯分析の試論をおこなうことができた。
    本研究では、日本の地域性を考えるには市町村レベルの面的把握が重要と考えている。他方、日本をこえてアジアのなかで日本の地域性を位置づけることが重要とも考えている。家族人口構造を生み出す社会構造の重層性を念頭にアジアのなかの日本を位置づける研究が展開できたことは大きな進展であったと考える。

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  • A new perspective in migration analysis with census and administrative record integrated data

    Grant number：18K01549  2018.4 - 2021.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Hosei University

    MORI Hiromi

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    Grant amount： \2600000 （ Direct Cost: \2000000 、 Indirect Cost： \600000 ）

    Duration of residency at the current domicile table of the population census is classified into the six categories: “since birth”, ”less than a year”, ”1 to less than 5 years”, “5 to less than 10 years”, “10 to less than 20 years”, and “more than 20 years”. Inclusion of the heterogeneous category “since birth” brings about misleading results in terms of the distribution pattern of the duration of residency. We classified population that fall in that category by age using the individual census records. Comparison of the current and new results suggests that these two sets of tables differ among population attributes.
    As for the individual-based data integration between census and administrative records, we proposed data matching by segmenting large scale datasets using spatial information. Despite the limited number of common variables which share donor and recipient datasets, we could achieve satisfactory results in terms of data matching.

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  • Geographical studies on regional fertility differentials and migration in Japan

    Grant number：17K01241  2017.4 - 2020.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)  Waseda University

    Yamauchi Masakazu

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    Grant amount： \4680000 （ Direct Cost: \3600000 、 Indirect Cost： \1080000 ）

    With many of subnational areas undergoing accelerated depopulation and population aging, there have been growing concerns about the future sustainability of population reproduction at the regional level in Japan. This study investigated the spatial aspects of low fertility rates in Japan. The main results are summarized as follows:(1) we confirm that the fertility rate of foreigners has suppressed the TFR in most prefectures despite the recent growth in the foreign population; (2) we suggest that the lower fertility rate of the Tokyo Metropolitan Areas cannot be largely attributed to in-migrants from other part areas of the country; (3)we found that Okinawa Prefecture’s experience with regard to fertility does not offer an appropriate pro-fertility policy model for the mainland Japan.
    In order to facilitate solid understanding of these issues in an era of low fertility, we have published a book on the methodology of subnational population projections for practitioners and researchers.

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  • Empirical Research on Demographic Family Sociology in Japan between 1720 and the Present

    Grant number：17H02589  2017.4 - 2020.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Kobe University

    HIRAI Shoko

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    Grant amount： \15210000 （ Direct Cost: \11700000 、 Indirect Cost： \3510000 ）

    This research has sought to identify a new theory of family change by combining early modern and modern theories of family demography, which previously have been discussed under a different framework. New insight has been gained on a wide range issues relating to long term demographic change, including the particularly striking increase in population and birth rate in the Tohoku region, even before the Meiji Restoration from the middle of the 19th century; the increase through these demographic conditions before the modern period of families forming ie and its subsequent standardisation; from the modern period onward the decrease in the death and divorce rate as part of an increase in the realisation of ie as a desirable outcome and the increasingly fixed nature of ie membership; and, with the stability brought about by modern ie as part of this change, the shift toward the existence of the restricted individual.

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  • Research on the factors that caused the commencement of the fertility decline in Japan: Comparative analysis between the East and the West of the Archipelago

    Grant number：25285151  2013.4 - 2017.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Shimane University

    Hirosima Kiyosi, OGAWA Masako

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    Grant amount： \7410000 （ Direct Cost: \5700000 、 Indirect Cost： \1710000 ）

    Iwami-Izumo region was a typical region of the western Japan where the population increased (annually slightly less than 0.2%) over the period of from 1721 to 1846 which is remarkable compared with that it decreased in the eastern Japan. Regarding to Iwami-Izumo region, we found that the region can be divided into three areas: seaside, intermediate and mountainous; in the seaside area, fish peddling and shipping along with fishery boosted; in the intermediate area, rice cropping evolved including field-developing; and in the mountainous area, iron producing and mining other metals attracts workers. Each area by the economic activities in the mode of pre-capitalist production sustained its specific level of population increase through mostly natural increase including sudden contraction by the famine and the restoration thereafter.

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  • An analysis on migration of aged people and regional regeneration in local cities

    Grant number：23701034  2011.4 - 2015.3

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B)  National Institute of Population and Social Security Research

    KOIKE SHIRO

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    Grant amount： \1950000 （ Direct Cost: \1500000 、 Indirect Cost： \450000 ）

    This study discusses the direction of regional regeneration from migration trend and population distribution change within cities, especially those of aged people, targeting local cities which have experiencing population decline from earlier time. The main findings obtained are summarized as follows. First, although population re-centralization was certainly observed earlier in greater metropolitan area, such as Tokyo metropolitan area, it spread rapidly to the metropolitan area of local cities after 2000s. Second, the trend of population re-centralization seemed to be more striking among aged people. As it is hardly imaginable to the population distribution of local cities go toward sprawling again in the situation where aging society with fewer children and population decline are projected to proceed heavily in the future, it will be necessary to seek new regional planning frame along with the recent population flows.

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  • METHODOLOGY AND ITS IMPROVEMENT OF LOCAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS

    Grant number：20300296  2008 - 2010

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Senshu University

    ESAKI Yuji, NISHIOKA Hachiro, KOIKE Shiro, YAMAUCHI Masakazu, SUGA Keita

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    Grant amount： \18460000 （ Direct Cost: \14200000 、 Indirect Cost： \4260000 ）

    This study focuses on the methodology of local population projections. The main results are as follows. (1) The cohort component method was widely used for local population projections in national and international governments. (2) The cohort component method was applied to provide more accurate forecast than net migration models. (3) The questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain assumptions that fertility rates will change. (4) The fertility and mortality of foreign people had little influence on local population projections in Japan. (5) The household projections by municipality were examined and its practical problems were discussed.

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  • Regional population dynamics in Japan before the Second World War

    Grant number：16320112  2004 - 2006

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)  Kobe University

    TAKAHASHI Shinichi, HIROSHIMA Kiyoshi, ABE Takashi, INOUE Takashi, KOIKE Shiro

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    Grant amount： \10900000 （ Direct Cost: \10900000 ）

    We investigated interrelationships among fertility, mortality and migration in Japan in the period between Meiji Era and the Second World War in regional context, which research topic has been rarely considered before. We yield the following results : First, we filled the lack of population statistics between 1860s and 1910s by modern demographical method and estimated total fertility rate and net migration rate by prefecture in that period. Second, based on the estimated demographic indicators, we recognized that the process from early modern demographic mechanism in Edo era transforming modern demographic mechanism through demographic transition started up in the first half of Meiji era, namely 1860-80s. Third, we focused on several regional-and periodical-specific-research topics utilizing our regional demographic database and GIS, such as spatial diffusion of Spanish influenza in 1918-20, demographic and household changes by municipality level in Shimane prefecture, migration process into Hokkaido, the frontier region in 1860-1920s and fertility and nuptiality by municipality level of Kanto Region in 1920-30s.

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  • Construction, Management, and Development of Analytical Methods for Spatial Data and its Application

    Grant number：10202205  1998 - 2003

    Japan Society for the Promotion of Science  Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research  Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Priority Areas  NIHON UNIVERSITY

    KOHSAKA Hiroyuki, KOIKE Shirou, SEKINE Tomoko, ARAI Yoshio

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    Grant amount： \47500000 （ Direct Cost: \47500000 ）

    In the first study, accessibility is measured from residential districts (Cyocyo-aza) to ophthalmic clinics in Matsudo City, Chiba Prefecture. To measure the accessibility at finer level, the one kilometer mesh constructed in Basic Area Mesh System is divided into ten equal segments for each side to create 100m mesh. The shortest path distance to the clinics is measured from the centroids of six thousand and eighty nine 100m meshes constituting Matsudo City. To examine spatial variation in accessibility within all residential districts of Matsudo City, the accessibility map at district level was intersected with one at 100m mesh level. It became clear that thirty to forty percentages of meshes have different accessibility levels from one measured at district level. The degradation of accessibility level, in other words, the rate at which spatial analysis at the district level over-assesses, amounts to 15% to 33%.
    In the second study, population distribution data for four points between 1890 and 2000 were estimated from old-time topographical maps in Japan using GIS. It became clear that the area of ten kilometer zone from the center of Tokyo experienced drastic population growth between 1890 and 1930 and the surrounding area to the center of Tokyo dropped the population density between 1930 and 1970. In addition, the central place system was changed from one based on railway network to one based on road network between 1890 and 1930.

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  • 地理情報システムを用いた人口分布変化に関する研究

    1999 - 　

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    Grant type：Competitive

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