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Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Springer Science and Business Media LLC  

DOI： 10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9

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Other Link： http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11625-018-0587-9.pdf

Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：Springer Science and Business Media LLC  

DOI： 10.1007/s11625-018-0617-7

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Other Link： http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11625-018-0617-7.pdf

Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD  

A global crisis for production landscapes has shed light on the importance of sustainable management of these landscapes in an integrated manner at local and national levels. However, there is a lack of quantitative research on the integration of relevant concepts into national-level policies and planning. Thus, we analyzed the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plans (NBSAPs) of 133 Convention on Biological Diversity parties using a text mining method to determine the current global situation regarding production landscape policies. The statistical results showed that (1) about half of parties mentioned integrated approaches in production landscapes (e.g., cultural landscapes, socio-ecological production landscapes and seascapes), (2) there were some regional differences in the number of references, (3) the introduction of these concepts has been increasing worldwide, and (4) these concepts have been accorded higher priority in national policy and planning.

DOI： 10.1080/09640568.2018.1530202

Web of Science

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：SPRINGER JAPAN KK  

Scenario analysis with integrated quantitative modelling has become a common approach to investigate possible future socio-ecological systems in sustainability research. Facing several barriers on the use of scenarios, however, a participatory scenario approach has gained wider attention in place-based environmental research communities. In this paper, we investigate future ecosystem services (i.e., food production, carbon sequestration, nutrient retention, and habitat provision) in the explorative manner in the Sado island, Japan, using a participatory scenario approach and spatial ecological-economic modelling techniques. The contributions of this paper to the existing literatures are twofold: the one is collaborative use of morphological analysis and participants' votes for more fair and transparent scenario building, and the other is a suite of spatial modelling techniques, inter alia, land-use projections using a spatial multinomial logit model, for more robust and accurate simulations. Taking such innovative approaches and constructing the ecosystem service index reflecting local perceptions, we built distinctive six scenarios and projected future ecosystem services. As consequences, we could (1) illuminate the trade-offs between land-based ecosystem services, (2) highlight the importance of adequate mosaic structures in providing bundle of ecosystem services, and (3) visualize the spatially heterogenous impacts of alternative scenarios that imply one scenario does not fit all areas. We also discussed the interpretation of a sink service from sustainability perspectives and lessons learned from the parallel approach of participatory scenario building and quantitative modelling exercises.

DOI： 10.1007/s11625-018-0590-1

Web of Science

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Language：English   Publishing type：Research paper (scientific journal)   Publisher：SPRINGER JAPAN KK  

Population-decline and subsequent underuse of social-ecological landscapes are increasingly being recognized as one of the crucial drivers behind the loss and deterioration of biodiversity and ecosystem services. In line with this, the study aimed to explore how alternative development pathways influence future land-use patterns, biodiversity and ecosystem services against a rapidly declining population in the Noto peninsula of Japan. By combining land-use simulation and evaluation of ecosystem services, the study formulated four exploratory scenarios for 2050, assuming a contrasting level of the society's reliance on domestic natural capital and different demographic patterns. At first, we analyzeds historical land-use changes between 1997 and 2007 and thereby simulated four plausible alternative scenarios using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network model. These scenarios were further used to quantify ecosystem services and landscape heterogeneity (as biodiversity indicator). The scenario analysis demonstrated that future land-use pattern could vary drastically depending on how the society utilize local natural capital even under the severe depopulation trend, whereas demographic patterns, in general, did not make discernible differences in land-use, biodiversity and ecosystem services. Nevertheless, a land-use change made considerable differences in the level of ecosystem services and landscape heterogeneity with varying degrees. Our analysis suggested that ecosystem services such as food production and nitrogen retention as well as landscape heterogeneity would decrease considerably by 2050 under the scenarios where the utilization of local natural capital decline and a significant amount of farmland are abandoned. Our findings highlight the vital role of land-use and agricultural policy in shaping the future availability of ecosystem services and biodiversity in this area.

DOI： 10.1007/s11625-018-0626-6

Web of Science

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Language：English   Publisher：Springer Japan  

CiNii Books

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Language：Japanese  

CiNii Books

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Total pages：257   Language：Japanese  

ASIN

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Presentation type：Oral presentation (general)  

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Presentation type：Oral presentation (invited, special)  

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